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COMMON USES OF CASH
FLOW ANALYSIS
There are many uses for
the information represented in the Before-Tax Cash Flow model.
Before-Tax Cash Flow
2. – Vacancy
& Uncollected Rents – $ ___________
3. = EFFECTIVE
RENTAL INCOME = $
4. + Other
Income
+ $___________
5. = GROSS
OPERATING INCOME = $
6. – Annual
Operating Expenses – $___________
Determining the Value
of Investment Property
Two commonly used methods
of determining the value of an investment property are the Gross Rent
Multiplier (GRM) method and the Income Capitalization or Cap Rate
method.
Gross Rent Multiplier
(GRM)
The investment value of a
property can be calculated using the estimated Gross Scheduled Income
(GSI) for year one, multiplied by a factor known as the Gross Rent
Multiplier (GRM). ("Gross Rents" is just another way of
saying Gross Scheduled Income.)
First-year GSI x GRM =
Investment value of property
The gross rent multiplier
used in evaluating investment property is typically derived from
comparable properties in the marketplace and may be adjusted by the
investor to reflect his or her specific requirements.
Using the Gross Rent
Multiplier to Determine Investment Value
Example:
Suppose a
potential buyer's gross rent multiplier (GRM) requirement is 8. (This
means the investor will pay no more than 8 times the gross scheduled
rent to purchase an investment property.) The property the buyer is
considering has an estimated first-year gross scheduled income of
$24,000. The investment value, or the amount this investor would be
willing to pay for this property, is:
Pros and Cons in Using
a Gross Rent Multiplier:
Pros: The
gross rent multiplier is a convenient tool because of its simplicity.
Cons:
The
usefulness of the gross rent multiplier is limited by the fact that it
does not take into account vacancy and uncollected rent, operating
expenses, debt service, tax impact, or income past the first year.
Capitalization Rate
(Cap Rate)
The value of an
investment property can be determined by its ability to produce cash
returns. After paying all expenses, except principal and interest
payments, the remaining cash flow is called the Net Operating Income (NOI).
NOI is most commonly used in conjunction with a
cap
rate to determine property value.
Cap Rate
The cap rate is the ratio
(expressed as a percentage) between purchase price and the first-year
net operating income (NOI) of the property.
Determining the Cap
Rate of an Investment
Investors use cap rates to
measure investment performance:
Net Operating
Income (NOI) =
Cap Rate
Purchase Price
Example:
An
investment property selling for $200,000 with an estimated first-year
NOI of $20,000 would have a capitalization rate of 10%.
$200,000
Using a Cap Rate to
Determine Investment Value
A variation of the cap
rate formula can be used to solve for investment value (price) when
the cap rate and the net operating income are known.
Example
Suppose a potential buyer
is looking at a property listed for $200,000 with an estimated
first-year NOI of $18,400. After looking at the cap rates of similar
properties, the buyer has decided on a cap rate requirement of 9.5%.
We can use the formula below to determine the purchase price he would
be willing to pay.
Income (NOI)
= Investment Value
$18,400 (NOI)
=
$ 193,684
Cap
Rate
9.5%
Cap Rate
Pros and Cons in Using
a Capitalization Rate (Cap Rate):
Pros: The
main advantage of using a cap rate is its simplicity. It also accounts
for vacancy and operating expenses.
Cons:
The
reliability of using a cap rate is limited because it only looks at a
one-year forecast and does not take into consideration any financing
or tax implications.
Cash on Cash
Another measurement
of investment performance is called Cash
on Cash (C/C). This involves
comparing an investor's initial
investment to the potential
before-tax
cash flow an investment property is
likely to produce. Let's assume the investor's initial investment is
$45,000 ($40,000 down plus $3,400 in closing costs plus $1,600 for
points ). We will also assume the property produces a
before-tax positive cash flow of $4,972 per year.
Before-tax
cash flow = % Return
Initial investment
$4,972 (cash)
= .11
or 11%
$45,000
(on cash)
Pros and Cons in Using
Cash on Cash
Pros: Cash
on cash takes into consideration vacancy and uncollected rent,
operating expenses, and debt service.
Cons:
Cash
on Cash does not take into consideration anything past a first-year
forecast. It does not take into account tax considerations or any
increase or decrease in equity
Debt Coverage Ratio (DCR)
Another use for the
before-tax cash flow model is determining
Debt
Coverage Ratio . When providing
financing for apartment complexes with five units or more, lenders
generally use a debt coverage ratio as a lending guideline.
Formula:
Debt
Coverage Ratio (DCR) is determined by dividing net operating income (NOI)
by the annual debt service (ADS). Remember, annual debt service is the
total principal and interest for all mortgages.
Net Operating
Income = Debt
Coverage Ratio or NOI
= DCR
Annual Debt Service ADS
Example:
Observe
the following cash flow model for Before-Tax Cash Flow.
1. GROSS SCHEDULED
INCOME $ 24,000
2. –
Vacancy
& Uncollected Rents –
$ _ 1,200
3. = EFFECTIVE RENTAL
INCOME = $ 22,800
4. +
Other
Income
+
$_
400
5. = GROSS
OPERATING INCOME = $ 23,200
6. –
Annual
Operating Expenses
– $
4,800
7. = NET OPERATING
INCOME = $ 18,400
8. –
Annual
Debt Service
– $
13,428__
9. = BEFORE TAX CASH
FLOW = $ 4,972
Debt Coverage
Ratio = Net Operating
Income
$18,400 (NOI)
= 1.37 DCR
Annual Debt Service
$13,428 (ADS
What is the before-tax
cash flow? ________________
(Bottom line of the
before-tax cash flow model)
What is the gross rent
multiplier for this investment? __________
(Purchase price divided by gross scheduled income)
What is the
capitalization rate for this investment? ___________
Net Operating
Income (NOI) = Cap Rate
Purchase Price
What is the cash on
cash return on this investment? ____________
Before-tax cash
flow = %
Return
Initial investment
What is the debt
coverage ratio for this investment? ____________
Net Operating
Income =
Debt Coverage Ratio
Annual Debt Service
OBTAINING
ACCURATE DATA
Obviously, your cash-flow
analysis will only be as accurate as the information you plug into the
cash flow model. Current information on a property's income and
expenses may be available from the following sources:
-
The property manager's
records
-
Copies of the current
lease and rental agreements
-
A copy of the owner's
Schedule E (rental property income tax schedule)
-
The owner's personal
records
Important Questions to
Ask
Gross Scheduled Income
-
What are the current
rents, according to the lease and rental agreements?
-
Are these market
rents?
-
How long do these
agreements run?
-
Are the tenants prompt
payers?
-
When were rents last
increased?
-
What did the owner
report as rental income on his Schedule E?
-
If there is a property
manager, what do his records show as collected rents?
Vacancy &
Uncollected Rents
-
What is the current
vacancy factor for the property?
-
What is the current
market or sub market vacancy factor?
-
What is a reasonable
forecast for future vacancies?
-
Is the property
competitive, or does it need to be upgraded?
-
Are the laundry and
vending machines owned by (a) the property owner or (b) an outside
vendor?
-
If (a), how long will
the machines last, and how much will it cost to replace them?
-
If (b), what are the
contract terms?
-
Are parking fees
charged for extra or large vehicles?
Annual Operating
Expenses
Annual expenses should be
broken down into categories. This will assist a buyer and his or her
tax professional to properly analyze the property. In addition it
makes it easy to enter the expenses on a Schedule E at tax time. The
following is a typical breakdown of annual expenses:
·
Advertising
·
Cleaning
and maintenance
·
Leasing
commissions
·
Property
insurance
·
Legal
and other professional fees
·
Management
fees
·
Repairs
·
Services
(garbage, gardening, pest, pool, landscaping,
etc.)
·
Supplies
·
Taxes
·
Utilities
·
Other
Annual Debt Service
Remember to
include
only principal and interest payments; taxes and insurance have already
been accounted for under operating expenses.
So far we have learned to:
-
Gather accurate data
-
Calculate before- and after-tax cash
flow
-
Use a Gross Rent Multiplier to
determine the value of a property
-
Use Cap Rate to determine the value of
an investment property
-
Calculate Cash on Cash
-
Calculate a Debt Coverage Ratio
Review
To reinforce what we have
learned so far, we will use the entire cash flow model to answer the
following questions:
-
What is the total
initial investment?
-
What is the before-tax
cash flow?
-
What is the gross rent
multiplier for this investment?
-
What is the
capitalization rate for this investment?
-
What is the cash on
cash return on this investment?
-
What is the debt
coverage ratio for this investment?
-
What is the after-tax cash flow?
Case Study
A ten-unit property is
listed for $465,000. It has five 1bd/1ba units rented at $500/month
and five 2bd/1ba units rented for $600/month.
The average vacancy in
the area is reported to be 5%. $1,100 per year in other income is
expected. Property taxes will be 1.2% of sales price/year. Insurance
will cost $1,800/year. Maintenance averages $2,500/year. Total
utilities will cost $2,600/year. Total services will cost $5,000/year.
Property management will cost 7% of Gross Operating Income. Buyer will
pay one point for 80% financing at 7.5% fixed rate amortized over 30
years with annual P&I payments totaling $31,213. Closing costs
will be 1.5% of sales price. Mortgage interest for year one will be
$27,784. Cost recovery will be $13,158. Annual points amortization
will be $124.00. Use 28% as the investor's tax bracket.
1. GROSS SCHEDULED
INCOME $
2. –
Vacancy
& Uncollected Rents – $
___________
3. = EFFECTIVE
RENTAL INCOME = $
4. +
Other
Income
+ $___________
5. = GROSS OPERATING
INCOME = $
6. –
Annual
Operating Expenses
– $___________
7. = NET
OPERATING INCOME = $
8. –
Annual
Debt Service
– $___________
9. = BEFORE-TAX CASH
FLOW = $
10. NET OPERATING
INCOME (LINE 7) $
11. - Interest (Mortgage
1) - $
12. - Interest (Mortgage
2) - $
13. - Points Amortization
- $
14. - Cost Recovery
(Depreciation) - $____________
15. = REAL ESTATE
TAXABLE INCOME = $
16. x Investor's Tax
Bracket x %___________
17. = TAX LIABILITY OR
(SAVINGS) = $
18. BEFORE-TAX CASH
FLOW (LINE 9) $
19. - Tax Liability or
(Savings) (line 17) - $____________
+ or (-)
20. = AFTER-TAX CASH
FLOW = $
What is the total
initial investment?________________
(Down payment plus closing
costs plus points.)
What is the before-tax
cash flow? ________________
(Line 9 of the cash flow
model)
What is the gross rent
multiplier for this investment? __________
(Purchase price divided by
gross scheduled income)
What is the
capitalization rate for this investment? ___________
Net Operating
Income (NOI) = Cap Rate
Purchase Price
What is the cash on
cash return on this investment? ____________
Before-tax cash
flow = % Return
Initial investment
What is the debt
coverage ratio for this investment? ____________
Net Operating
Income =
Debt Coverage Ratio
Annual Debt Service
What is the after-tax
cash flow for this investment? _____________
(Bottom line of the
after-tax cash flow model.)
Information
contained on this page provided by Wandering Star, with
permission.
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